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Discussion Starter #1
For anyone wanting sensible information about the covid-19 outbreak, I highly recommend this youtube channel. Dr John Campbell (not MD, but PhD in the UK) over the last ~3weeks has put together a series of videos that are both educational and informative. I think you'll get a very measured perspective on a potentially dangerous epidemic without either the "Hair on fire" or "It's only the flu" one gets from the usual media channels...

Dr. John Campbell
 

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Also check out peak prosperity on you tube. Lots of good info from him.China is clearly manipulating the number of deaths from this. It is not the flu.
 

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The CDC is working with the actual virus, developed the first testing kits distributed outside of government labs and have a good handle on what’s happening in the US. I wouldn’t trust any info out of China and the WHO hasn’t been as aggressive as the CDC has. The reason the percentage of deaths are relatively high is the Chinese downplayed and hid it for several weeks leading to a wider spread. I don’t think it’s likely they are releasing accurate numbers. Even if they have a handle on the real numbers.


CDC Risk Assesment (emphasis mine)
The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States. The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. It’s unclear how the situation will unfold, but risk is dependent on exposure. At this time, some people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of persons with COVID-19. For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low at this time.
 

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Looks like Iran may have a serious problem. All the countries around them have closed their borders. everyone should educate themselves on covid-19. Hope for the best but be prepared the best you can for the worst. Hopefully this does not become a full blown pandemic. Cities in Italy are shut down by the military with a run on supplies and food.
 

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And yet the numbers for deaths from the flu are far higher, but don't get the same amount of press. It's the same type of virus that causes the common cold, both are coronaviruses. This one just happens to be new, and panic is high, just like it was with SARS and MERS. Both of those had all the same warnings and the sky is falling panic, and they are now history. Avoiding this one is easy. Stay out of China. Stay away from people who are coming from China. I think all the cases in the US have direct connection to China, and several of the early cases are now cleared.
You've got a far greater risk of dying from the flu, even if you've had the vaccine, than from catching this one. The US is doing a pretty good job of quarantining possible risks to minimize random spread.
 

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Look at the reaction on how countries are dealing with this. It is not the flu. They would never react like this if that was the case. Funny how sars was talked up as a big deal but Covid-19 has been downplayed as just the flu
 

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I don't think "staying away from people from China" cuts it anymore.

"The World Health Organization on Monday said the new coronavirus epidemic had "peaked" in China but warned that a surge in cases elsewhere was "deeply concerning" and all countries should prepare for a "potential pandemic".
 

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I think all the cases in the US have direct connection to China, and several of the early cases are now cleared.
As of Feb 24 12 of the 14 known cases in the US are travel related. In total 2 of the 14 total are person to person contact from an unknown origin. A total of 426 people have been tested in the US thus far not counting those that were evacuated from China and put into quarantine.
 

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Experts say 65% of world population will have it within a year.
IMO the powers that be are taking a very cavalier attitude about the virus.
Like the stock market the world is ready for a population correction, especially for the ignorant that would eat a turd if it had legs and a tail.
 

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It will be interesting to see what the POTUS has to say tonight. Sadly this has already been politicized in the US.
 

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No one that is really an expert is predicting what percentage is of the population will be exposed.

In the Weds morning CDC numbers 67 confirmed cases total in the US (including those evacuated from abroad), 10 or so more total since the Mon numbers. NBC is reporting 60 cases total. There was at least one confirmed case today not in the numbers this morning that was likely community spread meaning they don’t know from where that person was infected.

CDC is now expecting community spread sometime in the future. The impact is yet to be determined nor is the scale known. It’s transmitted as a cold or flu would be through direct contact with the live virus. Be heads up, be informed, don’t panic.
 

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Wash your hands. A lot.
Clean your home and handles.
Use sanitizer when soap and warm water aren't available.
Avoid sick people.
If you have to cough or sneeze, cover your nose and mouth, not just turn your head or do it in the bend of your arm.
Repeat.
 

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As was posted at the start of this thread watch Dr John Cambell and Peak Prosperity on you tube. Both of them have great info on what is going on and give updates daily. I trust what they are saying. You will then understand this is not the flu and you can be asymptomatic for up to 24 plus days all the while infecting people. The death rate from the flu is something like .1-.3% and Covid-19 is about 3% and keep in mind all the numbers from China and Iran plus other countries are low. The Ro ( R naught)from the flu is way lower at about 1.3 then Covid-19 with Covid-19 the R naught is in the 4-6 range of infected per person. Again this is not the flu.
 

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Discussion Starter #14
I've been watching this outbreak for the last ~1month. I put together this synopsis of what was happening about 5 days ago, mainly as a way to clarify to myself what was going on and as an alert to friends and family.

Disclaimer - I am not a doctor (nor do I play one on TV ;-)
The information in this synopsis may be incorrect, out of date, or I may have misinterpreted what I've read.


Please take this for what it's worth*

2019-nCov Virus General Info – Feb 22 2020

50% of total cases are asymptomatic
35% of total cases “mild”
10% of total cases “serious” (not including “severe”/”critical”)
5% of total cases are “severe”/”critical”, eg leads to ARDS (requiring ICU?)
The China ‘Case Fatality Rate’ (CFR) = ~3%. This is likely skewed on the high side by only seeing the more severe cases.
Current estimated actual 1% fatality rate (estimate ranges from 0.2% to 2% → average ~= 1% of total cases are fatal)
At 1% fatality rate, this is ~10x more deadly than seasonal flu (at a ~0.1% fatality rate) and 1/10x as fatal as the 1918 Spanish Flu (at a ~10% fatality rate)
No “herd immunity” in population (unlike seasonal flu)
Fatality rates higher in elderly, smokers(?), and those with chronic health conditions.

Average 5 days from infection to symptoms. 14 days for 95% of cases. Can be as long as 24days.
Average 25 days from symptoms to disease resolution (recovery or death)
Symptoms are (1) fever (2) dry cough (3) shortness of breath (usually no runny nose nor sore throat – only 5% of cases)
Early in spread, cases seem grow at ~2x per week. As of 02/21/2020, for the last 3 weeks this seems to holding true for cases outside of China (including the Diamond Princess which is a significant number of these cases).
Virus affects the lower respiratory tract causing viral pneumonia. Death occurs via hypoxia.

Transmitted via: (1) droplets (2) aerosol in some cases (which can linger in the air for long periods) (3) surfaces
Asymptomatic spread of disease can occur, although at lower rates than from those with symptoms.
There have been cases of “super spreaders” (those with mild or no symptoms but with high viral load)
In China, a significant percentage of cases may have been transmitted inside hospitals.

From J-IDEA (Imperial College London) – 02/18/2020: If this becomes a pandemic (likely per J-IDEA), within the first year ~1/2 of the world population could contract the disease. Of these, ~1/2 will be asymptomatic and ~1/2 will become sick. So, roughly, ~1/2 of world population will not contract the disease, ~1/4 will contract disease but be without symptoms, and ~1/4 will contract the disease and become sick (of those that become sick, ~70%, will be only mildly sick).

Prevention:
(1) Handwashing with soap (20sec) or using 62%-70% alcohol hand sanitizer
(2) Not touching nose, mouth, eyes
(3) 2-meter distance from others, no shaking hands/hugging
(4) Social isolation
(5) N95 mask, goggles (for eyes)

Estimated time to a vaccine: 1 year


My commentary:

At 10x the seasonal flu fatality and with no population “herd immunity” this could be much more severe than the seasonal flu. Because of the lack of herd immunity, it is likely to affect many more people than the seasonal flu. As a comparison, it is estimated that 1/3 of the world population contracted the Spanish flu of 1918 where there was no herd immunity (note, however, that the Spanish flu had a much higher fatality rate of ~10% leading to an estimated 3% of world population dying during the outbreak).

Note: For some reason J-IDEA seems to think that ~50% of “at risk” population (= world population?) could be exposed to the covid-19. This is higher percentage than during the 1918 Spanish flu possibly (my speculation) because of (1) ease of travel and (2) a more urban population that exists in 2020 (vs 1918).

Easy rule of thumb: “1/8”. 1/8 of those infected are “serious”. 1/8 of the serious die (→ 1.5% at the high end of the range)

Other big issues will be:
(1) Stress on hospitals and medical care (with the ~5% of those affected requiring hospitalization/ICU). IMO, if many of the medical staff are incapacitated or overwhelmed the CFR could rise from ~1% to (possibly) as high as ~5%.
(2) The worldwide economic effects of the breakdown of supply chains/trade esp regarding China.

One other concern: Length of outbreak and Virus mutation.

In the case of the Spanish Flu of 1918, there were three “waves” of the outbreak over the course of a year. Each lasted on average 2months. The first occurred in the early summer of 1918 and was comparatively mild. The second outbreak was in the fall of 1918 after the virus had mutated and was much more severe. A third wave occurred in the spring of 1919 and was moderately severe, not as bad as in the previous fall but worse than the previous summer (possibly because of some “herd immunity” from the first two waves or because the virus had mutated yet again to a less lethal, more symbiotic, form). It is estimated that during that year ~33% of the world population was infected and about ~10% of the infected died.

One very odd thing: The number of cases reported in 3rd world countries (eg India and Sub-Saharan Africa) that do a lot of business with China seems very low when compared to all the effort going on within China to contain the disease. It is possible that the disease has been effectively controlled in these countries/continents. On the other hand, it might be that the cases are being severely under-reported.
 

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I think we see a lot of Recency bias when it comes to things like this. If you look at people who lived through the great depression they continued to can food and save everything they could for most of their lives staying prepared years after the depression was over because they feared it happening again. People today have no memory of it so they can not conceive it happening. Most do not realize how fragile/vulnerable we are as a society.
 

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Look at the reaction on how countries are dealing with this. It is not the flu. They would never react like this if that was the case. Funny how sars was talked up as a big deal but Covid-19 has been downplayed as just the flu
You obviously aren't watching the national media, cuz for them Covid-19 is the biggest, baddest thing ever. Massively overhyped.
 

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You obviously aren't watching the national media, cuz for them Covid-19 is the biggest, baddest thing ever. Massively overhyped.
Actually just the opposite. I have been watching this since the end of December early January When this first started to be reported. it was being downplayed by the CCP. Nobody was hyping it up. It is just in the last week that it is getting more attention.
 

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How bad is this? Should I be shopping AR-15s for the kids? I was going to get them anyway but it seems like I need to up the priority. Getting the Mustang back on the road has been high priority lately, may need to move it down below food and water supplies, guns and ammo, etc. Now, my home town elevation is only ~20 feet above sea level. Will it be under water due to climate change before I die of corona virus? I'm freaking out. BRB, fueling up and pulling my kids out of school, and moving to higher elevation.
 

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The CDC is really pushing for a pandemic. The risk in the US is next to 0 with a few really basic steps.
1) close the borders to everybody but US citizens and permanent residents.
2) quarantine and test EVERYBODY coming from outside the US. 1 month minimum.
It only got into the US because China hid the problem, and allowed people to leave with it. And the first people into the country before it was widely known only infected their spouses. No major outbreak in Chicago, so I guess it being really contagious depends on who you ask. So far only 2 (maybe 3) people were infected in the US, all the rest were infected in China, and those 2 with direct contact from someone recently in from China.
But since other countries haven't done a very good job of protecting themselves, ALL countries are now a risk, that's why we have to close the borders and limit travel into the country to only citizens and permanent residents. Everybody else can stay home.
Limit travel to outside the US. None would be the best because the fewer chances of getting infected the better.
But, since I have no faith in our government to do the right thing and use common sense, there will likely be a major pandemic and it will be their fault.
 

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Actually just the opposite. I have been watching this since the end of December early January When this first started to be reported. it was being downplayed by the CCP. Nobody was hyping it up. It is just in the last week that it is getting more attention.
Must be getting reported differently here in the midwest, cuz I've been more fed up with the coverage on it then with the coverage about a basketball player getting killed. And that was beyond ridiculous.
 
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