Vintage Mustang Forums banner

41 - 60 of 128 Posts

·
Vendor
Joined
·
3,636 Posts
OK, I'm going to attempt to chime-in without getting carried away with the length..

There are a TON of dynamics being ignored or not thought of in this thread. For all the reasons you can think of for doom and gloom prophecy, there are also sociological and practical/functional reasons that push the other direction. Ebb and flow..

Some of the historical examples, like Model A and T values, are missing context.. Those were never "pricey" collectibles to begin with. Most enthusiasts for affordable and common pre-war iron were interested in having fun with the thing, touring, tinkering, driving.. Problem is, on today's roads with today's traffic, they just can't slice and dice with it. That's a big contributor.. You think a Mustang is dangerous on the road today? Driving a pre-war tin lizzy is comparatively suicidal. Who wants to buy an antique car that they can't begin to consider to load their family into? So yeah, that stuff is pretty stale. But values for the desirable pre-war iron? It's not on fire, but they're far from cheap or worthless. I haven't noticed much of a paradigm shift for the stuff that suffices as "rolling art", and looks great in a collection.

For those who think that the future is "Fast and Furious", and those that are younger than us will gravitate to the cars they grew up with... Think again... The complexities of modern vehicles, all of the electronics, wiring, air-bags, computers and controls, and exponentially higher precision of manufacturing that puts it all together... It's just not realistic or practical for a reproduction parts market to exist for those cars, nor is it realistic or practical that someone can do it themselves at home with a nice array of Craftsman tools, a compressor, and a welder.. Forget that.. Just forget it, it won't happen in any serious capacity. Even guys with SN95 Mustangs are going to run into serious road blocks when the supply of serviceable used stuff dries up.

There's a "sweet spot" in cars in trucks... A sweet spot where the styling is cool and diverse and old-school, that the vehicles themselves can actually run 80mph in stock form on the freeway, and carefully piloted are capable-enough around town in traffic. A sweet spot where the systems and mechanicals and overall construction is primitive enough that a lay-person can actually "DEAL" with it at home, or with a limited amount of outsourcing. And a sweet-spot where reproduction parts manufacturers can continue to "reverse engineer" without falling completely outside of tolerance and technological and material-engineering issues.

That sweet spot is a bit rough in the 50's, but really catches wind in the 60's, and lasts up through the mid-90's, although air bags and computers and construction begins to conspire against the sweetness of the spot in the late-80's..

Our cars can run with the modern stuff, but are simple enough to be a viable hobby. I am not saying that it will continue to GROW... No... I'm just saying it's not as doomy and gloomy as you think. It's going to flatten-out, but then it's just going to trudge onward from there.. And values, they could continue to roller-coaster gradually up just as it's always been as demand stays consistent but supply continues to dwindle..

Another thing that's forgotten is that every "trend" always seems to have its counterculture, and eventually a snap in the other direction. As much as kids seem to be buried in their phones, indifferent about transportation or cars, and society seems to lean towards auto-pilot driving, that creates a vacuum in people.. Young people love to be rebellious, and the moment you pigeon-hole them as being one way, they'll say F.U., and snap another, because they hate being stereotyped.

I'm getting too damn Freudian now, but, I drive old stuff around town A LOT.. Not just Mustangs, sometimes obscure uncommon and even "weird" stuff. And I find that with younger people, the weirder or more "era-indicative", the more smiles and finger-points and attention I get. Mustangs are always loved, but holy cow, I'm a rock star when I'm out in something a bit more exotic and "they don't do that anymore" like my '71 Riviera, or a gargantuan 60's Cadillac. Young people LOSE THEIR MINDS seeing that in a parking lot, intersection or gas station. They don't know what the hell it is, but it's crazy enough that it grabs their attention. Even more than a pony car.

I'll wrap-up... I dropped my 14-year-old daughter off to high school a couple weeks back in my 1971 Thunderbird Special Brougham 2-door. It's a mint un-restored survivor. Mustard yellow, brown reptile-skin vinyl roof, yellow color-keyed hubcaps, ginger interior with yellow hopsack-cloth inserts and bright yellow accent stripes (part of the Special Brougham package)... You catch my drift?? Most of the "old folks" look at the car and go "Geeyawd... It was ugly then, and it's even UGLIER today!!.."... LOL!!

At the high school?? You'd have thought I'd just rolled up in Beyonce's latest new custom-tailored Rolls Royce. Windows down, all I could hear from all directions was "look at that car!!"... "Cool!!"... "Man, that is SWEET!!"... My daughter probably wished she had a bag over her head..

In any case, there's hope, there's a sweet spot of 30-40 years where cars were interesting, simple, and fast enough and adequate-enough handling, and every time someone tries to say "it'll be dead in 10 years", it's not... Kind of like "climate change".

When I was a kid in the 70's, my dad was the "young guy" in the CTCI, doing 55-57 T-bird shows all over the country. Back then, most of the participants were gray-haired retirees, and most of them were sure that the hobby was doomed as soon as they croaked.

The ACTUAL reality is that retired people are more likely to have the time and the funds, and aren't shackled by vacation hours accrued to travel to an event.

It's always been this way.

And I hope to hell I'm right!! LOL..

Rick
NPD
 

Attachments

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,338 Posts
I was actually going to reply with something similar, in that somewhere between 1960-1970 most manufacturers adapted styling, drivetrains, and suspensions similar to what is still used today. Look at what a Mustang/Camaro/Challenger look like today, 50 years later... their original counterparts. 20's-50's cars require a lot of modifications to handle/drive 75/80 mph on the interstate safely and they don't really look like what's on the road today (which I think is cool, I especially dig late 40's/early 50's cars).

80s/90's/early 2000s cars were still simple enough that you can throw an old drivetrain in it, or still "restore" one with simple electronics. Then we had the electronics boom where everything in a vehicle is controlled by it's own computer, module, and sensors. Those are going to be an absolute bitch to restore someday, and may be too expensive to do so if parts are even available? Remember, in order for there to be aftermarket support, there has to be a lot of interest. How many, say, 2015 Camaros and Mustangs will be around in 2035 if there were only 50-60K built in any given year, with less than half of those being desirable V8's?

Early to mid 70's firebirds had about the same production numbers Mustangs and Camaros have today, 50-60K per year (before the 1977 sales explosion with Smokey and the Bandit) and when was the last time you've seen a 70-76 firebird at an average sized show or cruise in?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,460 Posts
Either you’re going to the wrong shows, or you live in some awful, God-forsaken corner of the world. Few car shows around here have newer cars and at the ones that do, classics still get plenty of attention.
Just got back from Mustang Week / Mustang Invasion @ Pigeon Forge. Hundreds of Mustangs, and only about 5 classics. When I park my car with the rest, I do not get the attention that the new cars get. When you go through the photos that others take, there are very few of the classics. Their interests are how much HP can they get out of their car, and how loud can the get the exhaust. I will admit I get a few that are interested, tell me they like mine better than the new ones. But they are few.

I don't mind. There are a few that know what I have and that thank me for bringing it out, and driving it while others sit locked up in their owner's garages at home.
 

Attachments

·
Registered
Joined
·
433 Posts
Just thinking out loud and drifting off-topic.

When I go to classic car shows I see all sorts of cars. Not just sports cars and muscle cars, but lots of regular family cars, utility vehicles and commercial vehicles. This is because they are all interesting old designs and styles which we will never see again.

I think if modern cars now are to be cherished, pampered and restored in the future, then only the interesting stuff will survive. Regular family cars and other vehicles of no great interest will just get scrapped and become extinct. Let's face it, modern regular cars perform a great task of being reliable, good fuel economy, etc. But once they fall into disrepair and it outweighs the value of the car, then its life is over.

Also, I think with modern cars, it will be more ingrained into people to get them off the road when they reach about 10 years old. The scrappage schemes we had in the UK allowed cars of 10 years old or more to be scrapped. To me, a 10 year old car is still very new as my daily driver is now 18 years old.

And this is already happening here. We have a website which can check how many of a certain make and model of a car is still registered on the road in the UK. And cars from the 1980s are not far from being extinct. Cars that were made in the hundreds of thousands and were an everyday sight on the roads back then, and when checking the website, there are maybe 200 left.

Classic cars are a bit like music from the 1950s - 1970s. How long will people look back at this old music and think how good it is? Will people in 50 years time still go on about this era of music?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
10,195 Posts
I don't think our love of old cars is going to go away but I think it will be tempered in the future by environmental concerns and restrictions.

My guess is the lower end cars will wither but the nicer and more valuable cars will always be valuable.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
118 Posts
I'm 25, I'm a millennial. My first car was a 59 ford f250. I daily drive a 69 mustang and have a 70 in the garage as well. I agree with the sentiment of people being attracted to the cars of their youth. I see it in all my peers. Everyone my age gets a kick out of my classics but almost none have the desire to get involved with one. I'm the oddball. I foresee what many do, the hobby will certainly shrink greatly. I grew up wrenching on things. Most of my peers have never had the need to grab a wrench nor have the desire to use one on their vehicle. Practicality of modern cars gives no reason for most to desire to. I'm a mechanical engineer, I love tinkering. Most my engineering friends do to. I think that's the crowd that will keep the hobby going.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
438 Posts
I'm 21, so either millenial or gen Z depending on where you look. I use my 1970 Mustang as a fair-weather daily driver and road trip car. Car culture is alive and well, I have lots of friends who are into cars. Maybe not as many or in past years, I wouldn't know, but a lot. Most of them are into 90s and 2000s Japanese stuff but I'm friends with three other classic owners (1970 Scamp, 1970 Dart, 1969 Mustang).
I don't really care if values fall, my base model 302 coupe will never be worth anything anyway, but I hope parts support doesn't go away. The Mustang's extremely good parts support is what makes it practical to still use one every day and I don't want to have to stop driving this car.
I also have a 1985 Toyota MR2, which I consider a classic car at this point. You hardly see them anymore. And after I graduate I think I'll eventually add an old Ford truck of some kind to my fleet.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
642 Posts
Sure the Millenials will affect car values, they are too big a group not to. I would hazard a guess that prices will go down.

But think what would happen if the Green New Deal was implemented. With no fossil fuels or engines people couldn't get to work, goods couldn't get shipped and you couldn't drive to get what you needed. Millions would quite literally die if agricultural equipment couldn't use fossil fuels. Now I know you will say that no one in their right mind would implement that bill- and you would be right. Eventually the fools that suggested it will get into office and there will simply be no replacement of fossil fuels with our current technology- but that won't stop them. The Idea Genie is out of the bottle, and there's no putting it back in. Our kids will be around to see it. BTW, electric cars accounted for 0.45% of all cars in the US last year. The technology is woefully inadequate.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
611 Posts
I am a millennial as well, although being born in 85 I act more like a gen-x. I agree with much of what has already been said, but here's my $.02.

I believe interest in cars/trucks develops over time. Granted, I was raised in a Ford family and have always liked mustangs thanks to my father, but over the years I have developed interest others well. People are influenced by what they are subjected to growing up and their friends interests. In high school and college there were a few of us into classics, but most of my friends were into late models/rice burners. Fast forward 15+ years and some of those guys are now into classics. I think there will be continued interest in classics and agree most likely the more desirable rare cars will hold their value. Supply and demand will also directly influence price.

I earned my degree during the great recession and was fortunate to have a good job right out of school and can afford the hobby. There were many that did not and are still playing catch up. Factor in cost of living and many don't have the expendable income for a classic, but they can afford a late model mustang, camaro, challenger and use it as a daily driver. I know this doesn't account for all late model cars at shows as there are a lot of high dollar cars showing up as well.

We tend to gravitate to what we know or most familiar with. At shows/cruises the new cars get a lot of attention imo because that's what is being marketed. Between car manufacturers advertisements and plethora of articles hitting the web everyday on these cars, I can understand why youth find these cars interesting. I also believe we are in a period similar to the 60's with the auto manufacturers once again trying to one up each other. This is directly influencing all ages of car enthusiast. Heck if I didn't have to deal with snow/ice I would drive a 2019 Bullitt or GT350R.

I don't get to take my car to cruises as much as I'd like, but majority that I do get to attend I am definitely in the minority when it comes to owning a classic car. I try to be friendly with anyone that shows interest and asks questions. Unfortunately I don't see many classic owners engaging the youth. It's almost like its social hour for them and they'd rather talk to their car club buddies. I have not been to many cruises or shows outside my region, so hopefully that isn't the case in other areas.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
68 Posts
I think they are priced too high. I am new to it all but I have been interested for a while. Being I am only 15, I don't have a lot of experience but based on stories and information I have been told by older owners, the value has definitely increased as well as the price. I'm working on my '66 by myself and when I drove it before (technically not legally) I would still get tons of smiles and thumbs-ups. Even at my school, my teachers know I have one and they all want a ride. I just love classic cars in general but I would love to carry that legacy on, despite the obstacles.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,384 Posts
The same conversation is going on over at the AMC Pacer board................
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
670 Posts
"Are rock music dying" have been a headliner in several articles in the medias, the last couple of years. I have the feeling that there may be some similarites in that topic and the classic cars.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
120 Posts
Sure the Millenials will affect car values, they are too big a group not to. I would hazard a guess that prices will go down.

But think what would happen if the Green New Deal was implemented. With no fossil fuels or engines people couldn't get to work, goods couldn't get shipped and you couldn't drive to get what you needed. Millions would quite literally die if agricultural equipment couldn't use fossil fuels. Now I know you will say that no one in their right mind would implement that bill- and you would be right. Eventually the fools that suggested it will get into office and there will simply be no replacement of fossil fuels with our current technology- but that won't stop them. The Idea Genie is out of the bottle, and there's no putting it back in. Our kids will be around to see it. BTW, electric cars accounted for 0.45% of all cars in the US last year. The technology is woefully inadequate.

I agree with, hydrogen engine or hydrogen fuel cell electric cars will be the the future when they figure out how to produce it economically and distribute it safely. the electric cars of today are still dependent on fossil fuels to produce the majority of the electricity to recharge the batteries. We are many years away from hydrogen cars being safe enough and having the infrastructure to refuel.

My. 02 FWIW
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,201 Posts
The same conversation is going on over at the AMC Pacer board................
it's on every board, everyone thinks their hobby is going to die in the next ten years. What's happening is that the hobbies and those in them are evolving, so "their" image of the hobby is dying. With the exception of when they were simply used cars, I have never seen more classics out on the road than I do today. People in general have difficulty with change. You may have a couple years that were car-awesome, then you spend the rest of your life recalling the "Glory Days".

Just ask the guys that were into ProStreet.
 

·
Vendor
Joined
·
3,636 Posts
I'm a mechanical engineer, I love tinkering. Most my engineering friends do to. I think that's the crowd that will keep the hobby going.
All four of our NPD locations benefit from fairly strong counter-traffic. So for years and years, I've been observing what's out in the parking lot.. An inordinate amount of work trucks, i.e. contractors, plumbers, HVAC, electricians, farmers/ranchers, etc.etc.etc.... And of course, mechanics..

People who work with their hands, and have more confidence and courage in tackling a classic vehicle "DIY" than your average lawyer or accountant or IT developer..

Of course, we do get lawyers and accountants and IT developers in here as well, kicking *** and taking names, simply because they've got the fortitude and drive to learn and do it.

But it's weighted quite heavily towards tradesmen and/or people who know how to work on stuff, fix things, or understand HOW things work, in the course of their daily career.. It's been that way for many years, and should continue that way.

And yes, engineers-a-plenty.. :)
 
41 - 60 of 128 Posts
Top